Analysis of hourly demand, cost and emission factor from the electricity sector – a tool for renewable energy assessment

In this study, seasonal greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors were developed to realize the true CO2 reduction potential of a small scale renewable energy technology. The new hourly greenhouse gas emission factors based on hour-by-hour demand of electricity in Ontario, and the average Greenhouse Gas Intensity Factor (GHGIF J were estimated by creating a series of emission factors and their corresponding profiles that could be easily incorporated into simulation software. The use of regionally specific climate-modeled factors, such as those identified, allowed for a more accurate representation of the benefits associated with GHG reducing technologies, such as photovoltaic, wind,etc. It was determined that using Time Dependent Valuation (TDV) emission factors provided an upper limit 'while using hourly emission factors provided a lower limit. In addition, since there is a correlation between the electricity generated and emissions from utilities, several neural network (NN) models were developed in order to predict the hourly emission factor for the province of Ontario. Two methodologies were explored and resulted in good predictions. However, methodology 2 proved to be more accurate in predicting the hourly emission factor for the Province of Ontario.