Will autonomous vehicles undermine Ontario provincial policies to concentrate jobs and housing? Evidence from the Greater Toronto-Hamilton area

Fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) may drastically alter the way people travel and where they choose to live and work. AVs could lead to either more dispersed or concentrated land use patterns. The concentration of employment and residences—along with travel mode emphasis on transit, cycling and walking—is a central priority for Ontario’s Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. This study explores responses to a 2016 survey of residents of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, regarding the potential relocation of work or residence in response to AVs, to understand the locations and characteristics related and the potential impacts on land use that may result. There is potential for high-quality shared AV service to act as a concentrating force for residences in the City of Toronto and its western and northern suburbs. But there is also potential for AVs to disrupt travel mode-based objectives, eroding pedestrian and transit use. Key Words: Autonomous Vehicles, Land Use, Toronto