The intensification of the outer suburbs and the impact on travel behaviour: an analysis of York Region

In an effort to retrofit outer suburban municipalities to be more supportive of public transit, and less oriented toward private auto, intensification is being practiced throughout the Greater Golden Horseshoe. York Region, an outer suburban municipality undergoing intensification, has been selected for analysis. This report studies TTS (Transportation Tomorrow Survey) data using multiple linear regression, as well as comparative analysis to evaluate the effect an increase in density has upon transit modal split. Findings align strongly with reviewed literature. Findings are that while density and transit mode split are positively statistically correlated, the impact density is estimated to have on transit mode split is minimal. This suggests intensifying the outer suburbs may have the reverse effect of increasing auto traffic at the expense of small increases in transit mode split. A series of recommendations regarding transportation policies for outer suburban municipalities are then provided to coexist with intensification policies.