Stochastic Degradation Modelling for Parks Pathways

The degradation model is essential for decision making in transportation asset management, but it has been a missing piece in pathway management. The current budget level is not sustainable without more proactive planning. In this report, a stochastic degradation model based on homogeneous Markov Chain considering pathways attributes is developed to simulate the degradation process of parks pathways. The model estimates the probability of reaching different condition states for individual segments, which is used to assist the budget analysis with or without implementing repair strategies. The results not only show the overall condition trend but also indicating considering repair activities is more sustainable. The Pareto Frontier curves indicate the optimal achievable performance with different levels of annual investment. They provide a benchmark for evaluating the efficiency of the current maintenance strategies and also the evidence for making a tradeoff between the investment level and the network performance.