Orbital Prediction of Space Debris through Simulated Satellite-Based Observations and Classical Orbit Determination Techniques

 This thesis investigates the capability of simulating satellite-based observations for accurately determining the orbits of space debris. As orbital debris poses a growing risk to active spacecraft, precise tracking and reliable orbit prediction is critical to advancements in collision avoidance and long-term space sustainability. To combat this growing risk, a simulation framework has been designed to evaluate sensor parameters, orbital configurations and observational conditions that impact the accuracy of debris orbit precision.
The methodology involves modeling the geometry and kinematics of the space debris relative to an observing satellite, transforming these into appropriate reference frames, and applying visibility analyses to identify observational windows. Sensor observations are simulated using a pinhole camera model to replicate realistic image projections, with systematic variations introduced through adjustable camera parameters and simulated sensor noise. The Gauss method of orbit determination is then employed to estimate debris orbits based on these synthetic observations.
The results indicate that observational geometry, sensor specifications, and measurement noise significantly influence orbit prediction accuracy. Recommendations for future research include integrating more complex sensor models, exploring alternative orbit determination calculation techniques, and validating simulations with real-world observational data to enhance prediction reliability and operational relevance.