On-Demand Public Transit Systems: Demand Analysis, Network Modelling, and Sustainability Evaluation

In recent years, with the rapid advancements in information and communication technology, several on-demand public transit (ODT) systems have emerged as innovative solutions for low-density areas. The dissertation explores the network designs, develops demand models, and analyzes the sustainability of ODTs. In particular, the dissertation considers the following key research questions: 1) What are the spatio-temporal patterns of demand for ODT? 2) What are the main factors affecting the demand for ODT? 3) What are the main factors affecting user preference between fixed-route transit (FRT) and ODT? 4) How did the COVID-19 pandemic affect the demand for ODT? Do the impacts vary between small and large urban areas? 5) When and where is each ODT network design most efficient and sustainable? To address these research questions, this dissertation utilizes actual ODT operational data from the City of Belleville and the Town of Innisfil, Ontario.

The dissertation is based on five articles introduced in Chapters 3 to 7. Chapter 3 provides an in-depth analysis of the spatio-temporal demand and supply, level of service, and origin-destination patterns of dedicated fleet ODT services, based on data collected from Belleville. Chapter 4 introduces data-driven models for trip production and distribution for dedicated fleet ODTs using data collected from Belleville. In Chapter 5, hybrid choice models are developed to explain the service preference of ODT users among the FRT and ODT services. The models are estimated using a rich dataset that combines the actual level of service attributes obtained from Belleville’s ODT service and self-reported usage behavior obtained from a revealed preference survey of the ODT users. Chapter 6 presents an in-depth analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the demand for crowdsourced ODTs using data from Innisfil, Ontario, and a detailed comparison with the City of Chicago, Illinois. Chapter 7 provides a micro-simulation model calibrated on the crowdsourced ODT data from Innisfil, Ontario, to evaluate the sustainability of several ODT designs.

The analyses and the models developed in this dissertation will assist transit agencies in delivering more convenient, attractive, cost-efficient, and sustainable ODT services in low-density settings.