Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Building Heating and Cooling Energy Use in Toronto

The study describes the results of climate change impact assessment on building energy use in Toronto, Canada. Accordingly, three future weather data sets are generated and applied to the energy simulation of 16 building prototypes. Both statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques are used to generate the future weather files. The results indicate an average decrease for the future in the range of 18-33% in heating EUI, and an average increase of 16-126% in cooling EUI, depending on the baseline climate and building type. In addition, the GHG emissions for each building model are presented. It is concluded that the application of future weather files for building performance simulation leads to a better quantification of building energy demand in the future than a historical weather file. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the need to modify and adapt existing building modelling regulations and to plan future building according to the future climate.