Get Up and Go: Evaluating Station Area Factors affecting A.M. Commuter Rail Boardings in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

This research evaluates built form and demographic factors of GO Transit commuter rail station areas that contribute to ridership and utilization of existing services in the A.M. peak period using biannual GO Rail ridership information from the Spring of 2010 to Spring of 2015. In order to identify predictors of ridership growth, four regression models were estimated that evaluated factors affecting cross-sectional ridership, cross-sectional utilization of capacity, station-level utilization at each time period, and station-level year-over-year utilization growth. Results indicate that the strongest predictors of ridership, utilization, and growth were station parking capacity and household density of the surrounding area. This suggests potential for tensions in developing GO-supportive station-area land use policy strategies focused on either expanding station-area parking capacity or station-area residential intensification. The station level utilization model produced a priority list of future service increases on GO Rail corridors based on existing capacity and ridership.