The Impact of Video-Mediated Communication on Social Predictions and Theory of Mind Activation

Humans have a remarkable ability to predict strangers’ willingness to cooperate, an essential evolutionary trait to reduce free riding and foster social cooperation. This ability has been linked to the Theory of Mind (ToM), a cognitive mechanism that enables individuals to infer others’ intentions, beliefs, and behaviors. However, with the increasing prevalence of video-mediated communication tools such as Zoom and Google Meet, it is unclear whether this ability—evolved in face-to-face (FtF) settings—remains intact. This study addresses a critical gap in understanding how video-mediated communication affects ToM activation. Specifically, we explore whether video interactions impair cooperativeness predictions compared to FtF interactions, and the extent to which egocentric biases arise in mediated settings. We propose three hypotheses: cooperativeness prediction is more accurate than chance in FtF settings, no better than chance in video settings, and highly egocentric in video settings. Across three studies (n1=98, n2=120, n3=91), we confirmed these hypotheses with post hoc analyses ruling out language, non-verbal cues, and extended interaction time as explanations. A fourth study (n4=83) supported theoretical explanations and highlighted the role of eye gaze in prediction accuracy. Our findings suggest limitations in digital communication, impacting virtual team dynamics and trust formation, and indicate the need for technological advancements to enhance non-verbal cue perception in video conferencing.