Declining Fertility, Aging Population and Support Population Shortfalls: How Far Can Immigration Help?An Analysis of Declining Fertility, Increasingly Aging Populations, Population Support Ratios (PSR), and Ensuing Immigration Shortfalls for World Regions and Countries by 2050

Fertility rates, especially in developed countries, are declining rapidly, and there is broad consensus that population size will also decline and age concurrently. This demographic shift is expected to produce a support crisis as the growing proportion of elderly individuals will place increasing demands on social and medical services. A solution often proposed is increased immigration, which can bolster the working-age population. A fundamental question that arises is “will there be enough immigrants, and from where? This paper, building on and expanding a 2000 study by the Guttmacher Institute, presents evidence that by 2050, higher-income and upper-middle income nations will be facing significant shortfalls of support cohort populations and will also be facing immigration deficits as well. This paper estimates population support ratios (PSR) available in 2050 for U.N. national and regional geographies. The PSR uses support cohort populations 15 to 64 year old and net migration forecasts made by the U.N. to estimate support population shortfalls by 2050. The PSR are the number of support (or working) population 15 to 64 years of age to the number of 65+ year old populations in U.N. geographic regions, subregions, and nations.